Can Covid-19 Lockdowns Cause More Covid-19 Deaths than they Prevent?
One question no one has asked is if the restrictions are causing more Covid-19 deaths than they are preventing. As counter intuitive as this idea may seem it is actually a very real possibility.
Once a person is infected with a virus their immune system is prepared if the person is infected with the virus again. The entire immune system can be engaging a familiar virus in a matter of hours. Without exposure to the virus it can take up to two weeks for your entire immune system to be actively destroying the virus. This is why you develop symptoms and they get worse before they get better. The virus is hijacking cells and using the reproductive mechanism of the cells to reproduce, and in the beginning the virus is reproducing faster than your immune system is destroying it. Over time, more of and more of your immune system becomes engaged and your immune system begins destroying the virus faster than the virus can reproduce. This decreases the volume of the infection and your symptoms improve. Eventually you have no symptoms and the virus has been completely removed and you are no longer a carrier.
Antibodies recognize and mark a virus for destruction. After you’ve been infected with the virus antibodies for the virus remain. If you are reinfected with the virus it is immediately destroyed which means you can no longer be a host for the virus. This is where the term herd immunity comes from, where most of the population becomes immune to the virus because there are no hosts to carry and spread the virus.
In my article Covid-19 Media Project available at : http://orioncs.net/covid-19-media-project/ , I use CDC data to show that the virus poses 0 risk of death to 98% of the population. For sources and explanation you can read the article, but I’ll provide the basic statistics and explanation. 94% of deaths in the United States in this sample were people with underlying medical conditions. (we can choose any sample for which underlying conditions were known of comparable size and this doesn’t change. Italy had 99%, the state of Oregon had 100% of deaths being people with preexisting conditions, meaning 94% is probably a low extrapolation) The three greatest risks for complications are cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and COPD. This represents roughly 20% of the population. Of those people in this sample who were infected, only 6.5% died, which means even people who have an underlying condition survived 93.5% of the time. 6.5% of 20% of the population is 1.3% of the population.
According to serology studies, the virus is 30 to 80x more prevalent than confirmed cases which means the general fatality rate is between .1 to .4%. Since 94% of those people are people with medical conditions, then a healthy person’s risk of mortality is at most .024% or 24 out of 100,000 people, or 2.4 out of 10,000 healthy people. Of course these are not actually healthy people, these are people who unknowingly have underdeveloped immune systems or are genetically predisposed to complications. A healthy person is a person who has been sick and demonstrated the ability to recover. We have 1.3% of the population with underlying medical conditions who could die from the virus, and .024% of the healthy population who could die from the virus and I call it 2% even though it is closer to 1%.
It is important to understand immune function, because if you understand immune function you know the virus is not randomly deadly, and a person’s chances of dying are either 0% or 100%. Either your immune system can overwhelm the virus or it cannot. Healthy people’s immune system can, and an unhealthy person’s immune system cannot.
What restrictions do is prevent the healthy population from developing immunity to it. Picture a scenario with no lockdown, the virus infects primarily healthy people who become sick to varying degrees and recover. The virus runs its course in a month or two and it is gone. To protect at risk people, at risk people avoid contact with the healthy population and the healthy population avoids contact with at risk people.
What restrictions do is prevent the healthy population from developing immunity, so the virus perpetually has new hosts to infect. The virus lingers month after month and the longer the virus lingers, the more opportunities it has to infect people with risk factors. More people die because the virus is ever present.
The duration that a virus exists increases the likelihood of mutation. Mutations occur through reproduction and the more opportunities the virus has to reproduce, the more encounters it has with people’s immune systems, the greater the chance that the virus will mutate and become more deadly or more contagious.
Lockdowns are not only destroying our economy and way of life, they may be causing more deaths, and creating the conditions for us to experience a Covid-19 that is more deadly. The worst part about that is, if the virus mutates into something that is a great danger to the public, there are large portions of the public who will not believe them because they lied to us the first time around to increase their ratings to make money. I will know because I study the data to determine risk, but many others' behavior will be based on the reasoning that the media is exaggerating the danger and politicians who see exaggeration as politically advantageous are reinforcing the exaggeration again.