In case anyone is curious... The CDC has been releasing more accurate death toll numbers recently (accounting for comorbidities) and in light of recent articles and headlines talking about 100,000 people dying in the US while Trump golfs and all that I thought I'd take a look at the numbers and see if I could reach any conclusions.
The first thing I did was to plot out the total deaths from February until a couple weeks back (the data that comes into the CDC lags behind and the most recent 2 weeks are often missing a lot of data so I felt they wen't trustworthy enough to include). I then compared the deaths to the projected number of deaths based on death counts per week from the last 3 years comparatively.
The interesting thing to note is that deaths were actually down for the year until around the 21st of March. After that the impact of Covid could be seen as numbers soared to over 35% above what was expected. But as of April 11th the numbers of deaths have been on a steady decline. In fact, when the last 2 weeks of data are included, the curve drops below the projected deaths from previous years. The immediate takeaway here is that it would appear that Coronavirus's impact on the death count appears to be nearing its end as of about 2 week ago.
A second thing to note is that reports that say that the virus has been attacking mostly older people who were above the average life expectancy and that most of the people who died were in nursing homes. Currently, deaths are up almost 9%; however I would predict that if the deaths expected for the year due to age were front loaded into 2020 by COVID-19 we will see a dramatic drop off in deaths causing the average to plunge back down to 0%. In fact, due to all the social distancing and other measures it's possible that by the time 2020 is over we will actually have gone negative... Also interesting to note, is that when comparing totals of pneumonia deaths to COVID-19 deaths, Pneumonia has killed more Americans in 2020 than coronavirus...
As long as I had the numbers I also split the states into 5 groups. Rating them as Overwhelmingly Democrat if they voted blue in the last 4 presidential elections, Democrat if they voted blue 3 times, Swing states if they voted blue and red twice, Republican if they voted red 3 times, and Overwhelmingly Republican if they voted red all 4 times.
Obviously you can't tell anything by how high or low the lines are on the charts. States with more people are going to experience more deaths and no reasonable conclusions can or should be drawn from that. However what is interesting to note are the average slope lines. The averages for all states that voted red 2 or more times in the last 4 elections are trending down in deaths over the course of the year while states that voted blue 3 or more times are tending up.
Again, nothing can necessarily be drawn from this as New York alone would skew the averages unfavorably for other blue states, but the fact that democrat areas are split out into two groups and both have similar trajectories is interesting to say the least. Even including the last 2 weeks in this data would still not be enough to prevent the democrat averages from being positive...
But this made me think. What are the average death results for all of the states that implemented lockdowns vs the 8 states that didn't.
I think it's important to stress that this chart doesn't prove that lockdowns cause spread or that no lockdowns prevent the spread. But it is important to note the differences in these areas if for no other reason that if people live in a highly affected area and think the open states are insane and trying to get people killed they should be aware that not all areas are affected equally and just because something is perceived as necessary in one location doesn't mean it's needed elsewhere. The states that are open appear to be doing just fine and the unjustified criticism of them by the MSM would appear to be well... unjustified.
Anyways, let me know if any of this is interesting or not. If people are curious maybe (assuming the CDC continues to update these numbers - they have a tendency to start and stop reporting at a moment's notice without explanation) I can post updates in a week. Or if people would like to see the charts with the last 2 weeks included I can generate those too (just be aware that they are likely to be inaccurate which is why they were dropped for now)
Hope you all have a good weekend.