https://www.andrewbostom.org/2020/04/covid19-lethality-unhysterical-data-are-emerging/ CDC itself in its “COVIDView” as of 5/1/20 maintains covid19 hospitalization rates are directly comparable in those > 65 years old to “ recent high severity influenza seasons”, and for children (0-17 years old) “much lower than influenza hospitalization rates during recent influenza seasons”
–Covid19 Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) summary estimate =0.28, derived from > 50 pooled SARS-Cov2 antigen/antibody studies, each hyperlink referenced https://bit.ly/3bcFi8R
–Updated Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak analysis (5/6/20) reveals covid19 infection fatality ratio = 13/1304, or 1.0% given 1304 SARS-Cov2 infections and 13 deaths(deaths as of 4/14/20). All fatalities (like 13th) were elderly.
–Full Heinsberg Covid19 Study (“Germany’s Wuhan”) results published (~5/2/20): “the corrected higher infection rate reduced the Infection Fatality Ratio to an estimated 0.278% [0.228%; 0.351%]”. If applied to Germany with currently ~ 6,575 SARS-CoV-2 associated deaths (5/2/20), the estimated number of infected in Germany would be > 1.8million” crude IFR might be ~6575/1,800,000 =0.37%, or (likely) less. “Secondary household members may have acquired a level of immunity (e.g. T cell immunity) that is not detected as positive by our ELISA, but still could protect those household members from a manifest infection” (on T-cell immunity, see just below)
–Published evidence of the existence of specific cell-mediated immunity to covid19, not detected by antibody testing: 34% of healthy German blood donors, seronegative for SARS-Cov2 Abs, had T-cell-mediated immune activity possibly due to past exposure to ubiquitous human coronaviruses responsible for common colds.
“ We demonstrate the presence of S-reactive CD4+ T cells in 34% of SARS-CoV-2 seronegative healthy donors (HD)”… Healthy donor (HD) S-reactive CD4+ T cells reacted almost exclusively to the C-terminal epitopes that are a) characterized by higher homology with spike glycoprotein of human endemic “common cold” coronaviruses (hCoVs), and b) contains the S2 subunit of S with the cytoplasmic peptide (CP), the fusion peptide (FP), and the transmembrane domain (TM) but not the receptor-binding domain (RBD)…Our study demonstrates the presence of S-reactive CD4+ T cells in COVID-19 patients, and in a subset of SARS-CoV-2 seronegative HD. In light of the very recent emergence of SARS163 CoV-2, our data raise the intriguing possibility that pre-existing S-reactive T cells in a subset of SARS-CoV-2 seronegative HD represent cross-reactive clones raised against S-proteins, probably acquired as a result of previous exposure to HCoV. Endemic HCoV account for about 20% of“common cold” upper respiratory tract infections in humans. HCoV infections are ubiquitous, but they display a winter seasonality in temperate regions. Based on epidemiological data indicating an average of two episodes of common cold” per year in the adult population, it may be extrapolated that the average adult contracts a HCoV infection on average every two to three years. Protective antibodies may wane in the interim but cellular immunity could remain.”
–Boise/Ada County Idaho (pop. 481,600) SARS-Cov2 IgG antibody seroprevalence 1.8% (sample 4,856) vs. 664 confirmed cases (~8670 by +Ab%, or ~13X confirmed); 17covid19 deaths (as of ~5/2-3/20)/8670= CFR of ~0.20%
–Denmark (published 4/28/20): 0.08% Covid19 case-fatality ratio (CFR) for those <70 years old applying population-based prevalence of infections via SARS-Cov2 antibody testing in ~ 9500 blood donors 17 to 69 years old (overall antibody positivity 1.7%).
“The death toll among all citizens below 70 years was used even though only 16 of 53 deaths appeared among individuals with no comorbidity. This was chosen because the denominator included all citizens in the age strata, thus, also individuals with comorbidity. The IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio=CFR) including only individuals with no comorbidity is thus likely several fold lower than the current estimate.”
–Minnesota (reported 4/28/20): Mayo Clinic SARS-Cov2 antibody testing in n=12,000 convenience sample—patients and healthcare workers—yielded 20% positives, n~2400. The entire state had 3816 swab test positive for viral antigen.
–NYC SARS-Cov2 seroprevalence data updated (on 4/27/20) to almost 25% (24.7) meaning true covid19 case fatality ratio (CFR), even in overwhelmed NYC, ~ 11,460 confirmed deaths/8,399,000(.247)= 11460/2,074,553= 0.55%; For those <65, 2935 deaths, =0.14%; <65, without major morbidity, 59 deaths = 0.003%
–WORCESTER, MA (reported 4/26/20): SARS-Cov2 antibody testing (by University of Massachusetts Memorial Medical Center) of Worcester staff at the Beaumont Rehabilitation and Skilled Nursing Facility revealed that 20% (16/80) tested positive, and were asymptomatic.
–Miami-Dade’s population, based on serological testing of a representative sample of n=1400, had a SARS-Cov2 antibody prevalence of 6%, ~165,000 infections, ~16-fold confirmed cases; 270 deaths/165,000= crude CFR of 0.16%
–Italy: SARS-Cov2+ seroprevalence among blood donors in N. Italian “red zone”–30% of blood donors from all 10 municipalities, while 66% (40/60) of asymptomatic donors were positive in 1 of towns under lock-down
–Italy: (Covid19 Herd Immunity in the northern Italian Dolomites resort of Ortisei? 49% serological positivity in a non-random, convenience sample of n=456 persons, aged 20-59, undergoing serological testing; 2/3 were asymptomatic
April 22, 2020: New York State-Preliminary (read: underestimated) SARS-Cov2 seroprevalence data =13.9%; 19.45 million state pop (https://www.statista.com/statistics/206267/resident-population-in-new-york/)= 2.7 million infections https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-updates-american-red-cross-antibody-tests-id/story?id=70301746; For New York City the estimate was 21.2% positive (see image below from Gov. Cuomo presser, 4/22/20)
*Edit: The U.S. covid19 case-fatality ratio per viral antigen throat swab testing as of 4pm Saturday, April 18th, used an erroneous denominator of those tested vs. positive tests (722,182 at this archived tallying website, for example, as the Johns Hopkins site does not archive accessibly). The actual CFR at that time= 37, 938 deaths/722,182 cases= 5.25%, (an even more) heavily biased estimate, as the detailed discussion reveals.*
–Los Angeles County covid19 infections by antibody-testingwere up to 55X higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases, i.e., ~440,000. Renders case-fatality ratio (CFR)= 617 deaths (as of 4/20/20) /440,000= 0.14%
–Stockholm County crude covid19 CFR may be as low as 0.12%: “blood donor anti-body testing in Stockholm area reveals that at least 11% had developed [SARS-Cov2] antibodies. The actual figure is believed to be higher (i.e., up to 33%)” [crude CFR=944 deaths/784,437 infections= 0.12%]
Multi-billionaire software savant, Bill Gates—hardly the infectious (or any other) disease expert he fancies himself—commented with acid hysteria, several weeks ago (3/24/20), on the mere prospect of lifting draconian “covid19”, Wuhan coronavirus-related shutdowns, to reduce the economic havoc they have wrought:
“It’s very tough to say to people, ‘Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner. We want you to keep spending because there’s maybe a politician who thinks [gross domestic product] GDP growth is what really counts.”
Mr. Gates’ self-righteous fulmination, notwithstanding, his morbid, grotesque exaggeration, captures a widely prevalent, critical ignorance of the actual SARS-Cov2 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 of the genus Betacoronavirus, which causes Covid19 disease) virus’ lethality embodied in what is known as the infection, or case-fatality ratio (CFR).
Simply and accurately defined, the CFR is the ratio of the number dying from a severe infectious illness, the “numerator,” to the total number infected, the “denominator.” Clear evidence of infection, no matter how severe or mild (even unnoticed by the infected person), is determined, typically, by “immunoassay”, a blood “seroprevalence” test that measures the presence of so-called “antibodies” to an infectious agent such as SARS-Cov2. It is understandable, during the early throes of an outbreak like covid19 disease, that rapid tests which detect (ostensibly) “live viru